Comment

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Migrationwatch Response to the IPPR on Immigration and Unemployment

August 26, 2010

Our briefing papers 3.10 on immigration and unemployment, and 3.11 on immigration and youth unemployment attracted criticism from the IPPR.

In suggesting that we were claiming that correlation between unemployment and immigration also proved causation, the IPPR were attacking a straw man. We made no such claim.

Briefing paper 3.10 reported "A distinct linkage" (paragraph 7). This is clearly true, especially for London where over 30% of the variation of employment is associated with net international migration (paragraph 8). Furthermore, the press release made it clear (final paragraph) that "This is a complex area and other factors such as skills levels and the operation of the Benefit System are important".

Curiously, the IPPR seemed to agree with our main point. On page 7 of their "Anatomy of a Media Story" they say "The fact that employment rates for UK Nationals seem to be falling, or at least not rising, is a concern. The fact that employment rates for non UK Nationals are rising at the same time tells us something about incentives and barriers to work that it is worth taking seriously…" They continue… "Just because there isn't any evidence that immigration is harming employment in the UK doesn't mean that more immigration would be a good thing".

We recognise, and said explicitly in our press release on youth unemployment, that correlation is not proof of causation. However, we would argue that the absence of statistical "proof" does not mean the absence of any causation.

This point was best made in evidence to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs by Professor Rowthorn, Emeritus Professor of Economics at Cambridge (paragraph 83):

He disagreed with the clear conclusion that the government had drawn from the DWP study and the previous study by Professor Dustmann. He pointed out that both studies did find relatively large but statistically insignificant effects of immigration on unemployment. He argued that finding effects that are statistically insignificant "does not mean that they are small. It simply means that there is too much noise in the system to estimate them accurately".

It remains our view that it is right and necessary to bring these matters to public attention.

As for the more technical issues, the IPPR's specific criticisms of the approach taken by Migrationwatch in the research in these two papers do not stand up. The principal point the IPPR makes is that the findings only show "that local authority areas with higher populations have both more migrants and more young unemployed people" thus accounting for the strength of the relationship found. This is simply not true, as a cursory analysis of any data shows. For example, Eastleigh in Hampshire and Slough in Buckinghamshire have approximately similarly sized populations, but vastly dissimilar rates of net international migration (a fall of 100 for Eastleigh compared with an increase of 10,200 for Slough, over the period 2003-2009) and very different rates of unemployment.

Because Migrationwatch wished to analyse differences in youth unemployment and net migration at local authority level, it was necessary to measure youth unemployment by the claimant count method (data on a youth unemployment 'rate' at local authority level is generally not available), but in the London Boroughs the relationship between the overall unemployment rate and the rate of immigration from abroad is strikingly similar to the relationship found by Migrationwatch for young unemployed numbers and numbers of immigrants. The consistency of the relationship found is clearly significant.

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Press Release

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Quarterly Immigration Statistics - Migrationwatch comment

August 26, 2010

The latest quarterly immigration statistics underline the urgent need for measures to bring immigration under control. The Labour government claimed to have done this; it did nothing of the sort, as today's figures show with:

• net migration rising to 196, 000, an increase of 20%
• and the number granted settlement going up by a huge 37%
• 1000 visas a day being issued to those coming for work and study with a further 500 visas for their dependants

Far from limiting numbers the Points Based System has actually contributed to their increase.

Migrationwatch chairman, Sir Andrew Green said:

'The government is to be commended for their commitment to cap non-EU economic immigration but that can only be part of the effort. If we are to stem the inexorable rise of our population to 70 million within 20 years, of which 68% will be the result of immigration, economic migrants should be expected to leave after four years and their departure recorded. Those who want to stay should qualify through a further points based system.'

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Youth Unemployment Linked to Immigration

August 18, 2010

Coinciding with the release of NEET (Not in Education, Employment or Training) statistics, Migrationwatch have today issued a research paper examining whether youth unemployment and immigration are linked (Briefing Paper 3.11).

The paper finds that the relationship between immigration and youth unemployment is positive and significant in those areas that have experienced the highest rates of immigration.

In the case of those local authorities outside London with the highest proportion of immigrants, the relationship is very strong showing that for every one thousand immigrants into these areas, on average, the number of youth unemployed rises by around 900.

Statistical correlation is not, in itself, proof of causality but a correlation as high as this is, to say the least, highly indicative.

Commenting, Sir Andrew Green, Chairman of Migrationwatch UK, said

"People have tiptoed around this issue for far too long. Many factors contribute to youth unemployment but this research suggests that immigration is a significant factor in areas of high immigration. The case for getting immigration down to sensible levels, as the government have promised, gets stronger by the day"

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Immigration and the latest employment statistics: Nearly 80% of new jobs have gone to immigrants

August 13, 2010

The thrust of the Migrationwatch press release "Immigration has damaged employment prospects for British workers" (below) is reinforced by the employment statistics released on 11 August - see http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/lmsuk0810.pdf.

The bar chart on page 4 and table 8 show that nearly 80% of the increase in employment over the second quarter of 2010 has comprised immigrants.

Employment increased by 188,000 between the first and second quarters of this year but 145,000 of them or 77% went to non UK born workers, that is immigrants.

Many immigrants acquire nationality after some years in Britain but the employment figures for non British nationals are virtually the same as for non British born. This means that those who have entered employment in the last quarter are largely recent immigrants.

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Immigration has Damaged Employment Prospects for British Workers

August 12, 2010

The mass immigration of the past decade has damaged the employment opportunities of UK born workers in the areas most affected.

This is the conclusion of a new study, from think-tank Migrationwatch, (see Briefing Paper 3.10) issued on the eve of new unemployment figures due out on August 12. It has conducted the first comparison of labour market conditions in the 50 Local Authorities with the highest international immigration with conditions in the 50 with the lowest.

It shows conclusively that areas of the UK that have experienced the highest levels of immigration have higher unemployment levels than areas that have not.

The study also shows that employment rates in these areas are lower compared with areas that have received comparatively little immigration from overseas.

'While properly controlled immigration can be of economic benefit, this demonstrates that the 'open door' policies of the past decade have had a damaging effect on the employment, and therefore the economic prospects and standard of living, of UK born workers in the areas most affected,' said Sir Andrew Green, Migrationwatch chairman.

In London, which has received the highest level of immigrants, the study shows there is a positive relationship between unemployment and net immigration from abroad

For example for every one percentage point increase in the 'international immigration rate' (NIM - Net International Migration expressed as a percentage share of the total population of the Borough concerned.) of a London borough, there is on average an increase of around a fifth of one percentage point in the unemployment rate in that borough.

It also shows that immigration from overseas into London boroughs is associated with a fall in the employment rate of UK-born inhabitants: for every one percentage point increase in the share of immigrants in London boroughs there is a fall of around half a percentage point in the employment rate of UK-born inhabitants.

'This is a very complex area and other factors such as skills levels and the operation of the benefit system are important. But too little attention has been paid to the impact of immigration on British born employment prospects,' said Sir Andrew. 'Our study underlines the importance of getting net immigration down to tens of thousands, as the present government has promised.'